Migration

The assignment was to compare and contrast migration patterns as well as immigration issue in the United States of America and the European Union. I am going to do a little bit different and focus on the internal migration between US States and EU Member-States. 

The United States is currently, if media reports are to believed, undergoing a internal migration from higher cost of living states primarily in the Northeast to lower tax and warmer States in the Sun-Belt. Here is a sample headline  


These articles go into the recent census data that show the fastest growing counties are in the sun-belt where the largest counties as far a numeric decline were LA County and Cook County, Ill (Chicago). The article goes onto state that a Wall Street Journal analysis of the census data concluded, in part, that the suburbs and small and medium size cities have experienced the greatest growth.(Allen 2023).

It is too early to tell whether of not these trends will continue and it is also notable to point out that the  migration rate in the US has been declining over the past 70 years and there are plenty of data showing that Americans today are much less likely to move away from home to work than in generations past. (Frey 2023) 


The US while their migration rate has been declining still has more internal migration than in the EU (Smith et al. 2010), though it should be noted that it is very difficult to compare internal migration in the EU.

Internally in the EU the highest State to State migration are from states that have been historically less economically prosperous to those that have been more economically prosperous. To quote Pew: "EU countries with the highest number of migrants from other EU countries include Germany (5.3 million), the United Kingdom (2.9 million) and France (2.3 million). Meanwhile, EU countries with the highest number of migrants to other EU countries include Poland (3.5 million), Romania (3 million) and Germany (1.8 million)." (Pew 2017). These immigrants may still experience discrimination due to their differing national identities compared to the US where State to State (i.e. Virginia to Maine) discrimination is very rare. When I was in England for study-abroad (pre-Brexit and mid-2000s), for example, Polish bus drivers were a very common sight as the unemployment rate in Poland was nearly 20 percent, and workers were simply arbitraging their labor by moving to where the high paying jobs for their skill set where located. Currently London has a shortage of drivers and one reason may be the unemployment rate in Poland has dramatically decreased in the last 20  years and is now sub- five percent.  


Moving back to the US, I think that while the trend of overall migration is down, that the trend of moving to the sun belt may be sustained by younger cohorts who will still be attracted to large agglomerations for job prospects but perhaps will look at cities such as Phoenix, Austin and Miami as opposed to NYC, Chicago, and LA. These younger cohorts have greater freedom to move as they do not generally own their homes which removes the friction of selling and buying a new house.  (Frey 2023)

I also think that the increased mortgage rates will keep many homeowners in their homes as they are locked into a low-interest loans which will reduce the supply of homes, especially for first-time home buyers. This reduced supply, may reduce the migration of young Americans as they may not find affordable housing in the Sun Belt.     

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Christopher Smith, Abigail Wozniak, R. M. (2010). Internal Migration in the US: Updated Facts and Recent Trends*. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomc20101201memo01.pdf

Origins and destinations of European Union migrants within the EU. (2017, June 19). Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/interactives/origins-destinations-of-european-union-migrants-within-the-eu/

Allen, M. (2023, March 30). New data: America’s Sun Belt shift continues as COVID eases. Axios. https://www.axios.com/2023/03/30/america-population-sun-belt-census

Frey, W. H. (2023, February 2). Americans’ local migration reached a historic low in 2022, but long-distance moves picked up. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/research/americans-local-migration-reached-a-historic-low-in-2022-but-long-distance-moves-picked-up/

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